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Limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared to 3°C avoids 80% of the increased human exposure to heat stress. At 3°C, 90% of the Himalayan Region experiences drought lasting over a year
Additional people exposed to climate change risks (millions)
Coastal flooding
17.4 million 1.5C 18.2 million 2C 20.4 million 3C 21.8 million 4C
Drought
10.7 million 1.5C 25.1 million 2C 58.7 million 3C 93.1 million 4C
Heat Stress
86.1 million 1.5C 226.8 million 2C 511.1 million 3C 726.1 million 4C
Fluvial flooding
4.3 million 1.5C 8.2 million 2C 27.6 million 3C 46.5 million 4C
Economic impact of fluvial flooding (millions USD)
*Total of Direct and Indirect impacts
Economic impact
$898 M 1.5C $1,702 M 2C $5,891 M 3C $10,157 M 4C
Crop yield loss (percent)
Maize
-6.1 % 1.5C -8.7 % 2C -13.8 % 3C -18.6 % 4C
Wheat
-5.7 % 1.5C -8.5 % 2C -14.0 % 3C -19.7 % 4C
Soy Bean
-3.8 % 1.5C -5.8 % 2C -10.2 % 3C -15.0 % 4C
Rice
-2.7 % 1.5C -4.1 % 2C -7.3 % 3C -10.9 % 4C
GDP Loss (percent)
-0.02 % 1.5C -0.03 % 2C -0.05 % 3C -0.08 % 4C
Pollination is reduced by half at 3-4°C global warming compared to a quarter reduction at 1.5°C. Limiting warming to 1.5°C allows half the country to act as a refuge for biodiversity, compared with 6% at 3°
Biodiversity loss (percent)
Climate refugia for plants remaining
(% country land area)
58.0 % 1.5C 41.0 % 2C 17.0 % 3C 10.0 % 4C
Climate refugia for vertebrates remaining
(% country land area)
40.0 % 1.5C 22.0 % 2C 10.0 % 3C 7.0 % 4C
Loss of pollination as ecosystem service
26.3 % 1.5C 32.2 % 2C 42.5 % 3C 48.8 % 4C
Population year 2000. Climate baseline period 1961-1990. Coastal flooding assumes existing sea-defences are maintained. Economic climate projections baseline 1985-2015. Economic & annual GDP baseline 2011.
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